Kenyans could soon pay more for essential household commodities, including fresh milk, maize flour, wheat flour and sugar, following a new warning from the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) about mounting pressure on food prices.

The warning is contained in the bank's September 2026 Agriculture Sector Survey, published on October 20, which identifies prolonged dry weather, higher fuel prices and rising transportation costs as key factors behind expectations of further price increases.

According to the survey, which covered 466 farmers, wholesalers and retailers across Kenya, fresh packaged milk faces the strongest upward price pressure, with 74 per cent of respondents expecting its price to increase.

The findings raise fresh concerns for households already struggling to balance their budgets as the cost of everyday necessities continues to weigh on family finances. However, the figures reflect market expectations, not a guarantee that every commodity will become more expensive by a specific amount.

The survey also indicates that expectations of higher unga prices have increased significantly. The proportion of respondents anticipating a rise in fortified maize flour prices climbed from 31 per cent in August to 47 per cent in September.

For white wheat flour, the proportion rose from 29 per cent to 48 per cent over the same period, while expectations of higher prices for sifted maize flour increased from 19 per cent to 40 per cent.

Sugar is also facing upward price pressure, with 28 per cent of respondents expecting an increase, compared with 15 per cent in August. Garden peas were among the other agricultural products identified in the survey.

In its October 21 report, Kenyans.co.ke highlighted the CBK findings, including the 74 per cent reading for fresh packaged milk and the growing expectations of higher flour prices.

The developments come amid an already difficult period for Kenya's dairy industry, where dry weather and reduced deliveries have affected the availability of fresh milk in some retail outlets.

In an October 19 report, The Star examined the country's milk-supply challenges, highlighting the effects of drought, rising animal-feed costs and declining deliveries to processors.

The newspaper reported that formal milk deliveries declined by 15.6 per cent between May and August 2026, according to data from the Kenya Dairy Board and the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics.

The decline has raised concerns about the ability of processors to maintain consistent supplies, particularly for fresh packaged milk. Although Kenya produces substantial quantities of milk annually, seasonal production challenges and weaknesses in collection and distribution can affect the amount reaching supermarkets and shops.

The CBK survey identifies prolonged dry weather as a major factor behind the anticipated food-price increases. Its findings indicate that 97 per cent of surveyed farmers cited weather conditions as a concern, while 92 per cent pointed to transportation costs.

Poor rainfall can reduce pasture and fodder availability, increasing the cost of feeding livestock and placing pressure on milk production. For crop farmers, prolonged dry conditions can also affect yields and the availability of agricultural produce.

The effects can extend beyond farms. When production and distribution become more expensive, wholesalers and retailers may face higher operating costs, creating pressure to adjust the prices paid by consumers.

In an earlier report published on September 22, The Standard examined how inadequate rainfall and limited fodder had contributed to milk-supply difficulties, with lower deliveries to processors affecting the wider dairy supply chain.

The newspaper's reporting provides additional context for the CBK warning, particularly regarding the connection between weather conditions, livestock feeding costs and the availability of milk.

Fuel prices are another factor that could influence food prices in the coming weeks.

Commercial vehicles depend heavily on fuel to transport agricultural produce from farms to collection centres, wholesale markets and retail outlets. When fuel prices rise, transporters may face higher operating costs, which can increase the cost of moving food around the country.

In its October 20 report, People Daily highlighted the CBK's concerns about continuing inflationary pressure, identifying higher food prices, fuel costs and transportation expenses among the risks facing Kenya's economy.

The report also noted that global economic shocks, including geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, could contribute to higher energy and import costs.

However, fuel prices are only one part of the equation. The final price consumers pay for milk, flour and sugar will also depend on production levels, market demand, distribution expenses and decisions made by manufacturers and retailers.

The broader inflation figures underline why the CBK warning matters to households.

Kenya's annual inflation rate reached 6.8 per cent in September 2026, according to the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, compared with 6.6 per cent in August. Food and non-alcoholic beverages recorded annual inflation of 9.5 per cent, while transport inflation stood at 15.6 per cent.

These figures show that food and transportation costs were already putting pressure on household spending before the latest agriculture survey highlighted the possibility of further increases in selected commodities.

Another issue that could affect the future cost of unga is the proposed review of Kenya's tax framework.

The proposed National Tax Policy changes have raised concerns about the possible removal of maize flour, wheat flour and cassava flour from the zero-rated VAT category.

Under Kenya's VAT system, zero-rated supplies and exempt supplies are treated differently. Businesses supplying zero-rated goods can generally claim eligible input VAT credits, while businesses supplying exempt goods are generally unable to recover input VAT on related purchases.

Consequently, changing the tax treatment of flour could increase some manufacturers' production costs, potentially creating pressure for higher retail prices.

However, the effect would depend on the final policy adopted, the applicable legislation and how manufacturers respond. The proposal should not be presented as an implemented tax increase, and its potential effect on flour prices should not be treated as certain.

Despite the pressure on selected commodities, the CBK expects overall inflation to remain within the official target range over the next three months, although it could stay above the 5 per cent midpoint.

In its September Market Perceptions Survey, the bank identified higher fuel and transportation costs, weather-related food-supply constraints and global economic shocks as risks to price stability.

The CBK also pointed to the prospect of above-average short rains between October and December 2026 as a potential source of relief. Improved rainfall could support crop production, restore pasture and fodder, and help ease some food-supply pressures.

The outlook, however, will depend on actual weather conditions and how quickly improved agricultural production translates into greater market supply. The bank's inflation outlook can be read in its [September 2026 Market Perceptions Survey]

For ordinary households, the immediate concern is whether the money set aside for shopping will continue to cover the same quantities of food.

If the expected increases materialise, families could spend more on milk, unga and sugar, leaving less money for vegetables, transport and other necessities.

Consumers in agricultural and trading centres such as Kianyaga may also feel the effects, although the CBK survey does not establish that prices there will rise before those in other parts of Kenya.

Ultimately, the coming weeks will determine whether the expected increases translate into higher retail prices or whether improved weather and changing market conditions help ease the pressure.

For now, the warning from the CBK is clear: while inflation is expected to remain within the target range, the cost of putting essential food on the table could become more difficult for Kenyan households.