Kenyans could soon face a sharp increase in fuel prices, with projections indicating pump prices may rise to between KSh 230 and KSh 250 per litre in April, driven by escalating global tensions involving Iran.
In a strongly worded statement, Kuria warned that the month ahead could mark one of the most difficult economic periods in recent history.
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“April will be the toughest and most brutal month of all times. The real effects of the regrettable war in Iran will take a toll on the global economy,” he said.
Why Fuel Prices in Kenya Are Rising
Fuel prices in Kenya are heavily influenced by global oil markets, as the country relies on imports to meet its energy needs. Any disruption in international supply chains often translates directly into higher local pump prices.
The current situation has been worsened by tensions in the Middle East, a region that plays a critical role in global oil production and supply.
“The Hormuz effects of energy supply disruptions will hammer the global economy. In countries like Kenya, pump prices will end up in the region of KSh 230 to KSh 250 per litre,” Kuria warned.
Impact of the Strait of Hormuz Disruptions
A key concern is the stability of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important oil transit routes. A significant portion of global oil shipments passes through this narrow corridor, making it highly sensitive to geopolitical tensions.
Any disruption in this route could limit supply, pushing global oil prices higher and, in turn, increasing fuel prices in Kenya and other import-dependent economies.
Pressure on Government and Economic Risks
As fuel prices rise, governments often face pressure to introduce relief measures such as subsidies or tax reductions. However, Kuria cautioned against such short-term interventions.
“There will be pressure and temptations to apply knee-jerk and short-termist solutions such as subsidies and foregoing tax revenues. This must be avoided at all costs,” he stated.
He emphasized that maintaining macroeconomic stability should remain a priority, warning that reactive policies could have long-term consequences.
“Messing up with the macroeconomic gains achieved so far will come with consequences that cannot be undone even two years after the war,” he added.
What This Means for Kenyan Consumers
A spike in fuel prices in Kenya is likely to have a ripple effect across the economy, leading to higher transport costs, increased food prices, and overall inflation.
Consumers should prepare for a possible rise in the cost of living as global oil prices continue to fluctuate amid the ongoing crisis.
Call for Global Restraint
Kuria concluded by urging global leaders to pursue diplomatic solutions to stabilize the situation and prevent further economic damage.
“As a nation, we must collectively swallow the bitter Hormuz inflation pill while hoping that Benjamin Netanyahu, Donald Trump, and the faceless leadership of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in Tehran come back to their senses to save the world,” he said.
The coming weeks will be critical in determining the direction of global oil prices—and by extension, fuel prices in Kenya—as markets react to unfolding geopolitical developments.
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